UK General Election Turnout 2010: Waiting for a spike in democracy?

UK voter turnout for the past 50 years or so has been in a steady but relatively gentle decline…. well, that was up until the 1997 General Election, where it proceeded to tumble rather more rapidly with turnout eventually falling to around the 60% mark by 2001/2005 elections.

So, what’s in store for us this time around?

Stats from House of Commons Research Papers 01/54 & 05/33 
Courtesy of ukpoliticalinfo

This year’s televised leaders’ debates have gone some way to pique public interest in the 2010 UK Election, with the Electoral Commission reporting a spike in voter registration form downloads as the registration deadline approached.  This may well have been related to interest sparked by the debates; yet it remains difficult to know whether that indication of intent will be transformed into a corresponding spike in votes at the polling stations later today.

Yet even if turnout does increase this time around, would a spike in the chart above really indicate that the public have re-engaged in democratic politics in a meaningful way and that we are back on track to a healthy democracy?

I’m not convinced. There are a number of trends that may well continue to influence political engagement beyond the 2010 turnout stats; spike or no spike.

Patrick Dunleavy, Chris Gilson and David Sanders over at LSE have commented on a  couple of key long term trends which we ought to be paying more attention to, albeit perhaps after the 6th May when everything has calmed down a bit… These include the following points:

1. Over the longer term, people simply do not identify with parties the way they used to.

Stats from LSE election experts blog R.Sanders

2. A significant proportion of younger people consistently aren’t voting, or feeling a duty to vote.

I’d also add two further points to those;

3. There appears to be some indication of a hardening of the cynicism and distrust with which people view politicians (post-expenses scandal), as evidenced in the latest edition of the  Hansard Society’s excellent ongoing Audit of political engagement* .

4.  In relation to all of the points above, there seems to be what you might term a lack of relevance of Parliament to people’s every day lives. As Hansard Society Chair, Peter Riddell points out;

‘the main challenge for Parliament may be to show its relevance’… yet… ‘ there is little public interest in the various political reform proposals debated by MPs, think tanks and the media.’

I know I can certainly think of a few things I’d rather do on my day off than get involved in political reform initiatives, and I actually like that sort of thing.

If citizens and Parliament are to re-engage beyond May 6th then there is a need for more meaningful, longer term relationships to be built from both sides.

The kind of trust required to acheive this kind of attitudinal shift takes time and effort to build, and I’m not sure how much time and energy any members of parliament will have left over for the democratic deficit after dealing with the deficit.

However, that said, there’s one thing I’m hoping for on May 6th, and that’s a statistically significant spike… so to speak.

*Point of information, I'm featured in one of the Audits - but which year was it? Answers on a postcard to me please... first prize.... £10 book voucher (with which to buy your own hard copy of said audit)

Iran Election : London Protest : Social Media

I just met this group of young Iranians and supporters on Waterloo Bridge. They’re campaigning on the recent Iranian voting scandal and will be protesting in London outside the Iranian embassy this Saturday as part of the http://www.whereismyvote.org/ global day of action on July 25th from 1-4pm.

“The Global Day of Action is not affiliated with any partisan political agenda and is aimed at securing the internationally recognized rights of the Iranian people”

Interesting to see local groups getting active and handing out flyers in such a positive and friendly way, I think it really works well. I’d say that I’m far more likely to go along to something if asked in person rather than tweeted at, emailed or facebook-messaged. Social media is great, but sometimes having a chat is what’s really the motivator.

As it is, I’m off on holiday from tomorrow so can’t be there, so went to the website to find out more about what I could do online instead. Joining a Facebook group is not as good as turning up by any means, but its a way of showing support and keeping in touch with the cause, and other opportunities to act in real life. 

Aha! So that might be what social media is for….?

—- Newsflash! —-In ‘Other Inspiring Iranians I’ve met on Waterloo Bridge’, see my Ahmad Foroughi post from the time of the Obama Election – an awesome photo, and a sweet piece of social history!

Blogging Ideas : Pakistani Spectator

A -kind of- festive post for you before the holiday season kicks off for real… I read a few international blogs through the excellent global voices and one of the active ones is the Pakistani Spectator. Ghazala Khan does a regular series of interviews with bloggers from all over the place and it was my turn last week: 

Would you please tell us something about you and your site?

I write about public involvement in decision making. This is actually takes in quite a wide range of different issues, from the tension between different modes of governance and electoral systems to how individuals collaborate on decision making in their own communities, both locally and online. I blog here.

    Do you feel that you continue to grow in your writing the longer you write? Why is that important to you?

I think everyone learns as they write more frequently – it forces you to order your thoughts in a structured format and to try and imagine how others might understand your meaning. Having said that, I feel that the most important thing is to get out from behind the keyboard and monitor and to speak with a whole range of different people to gain inspiration whenever possible. That’s where you find opportunities to grow as an individual and as a member of several wider communities.

    I’m wondering what some of your memorable experiences are with blogging?

My favourite recent post was an interview with an Obama supporter on London bridge – I took a quick photo of him with my camera phone and it came out so well – really capturing the enthusiasm and spirit of the moment. I was affected by the belief of an individual that genuine change can come from those at the top rather than the cynicism that is often expressed towards decision makers in the UK.

    What do you do in order to keep up your communication with other bloggers?

I use RSS feeds to keep up to date – attempt to keep my netvibes page which pulls all of those feeds together in good order. Then of course, I read and comment when I have some spare time.

    What do you think is the most exciting or most innovative use of technology in politics right now?

In politics, it has to be the Obama campaign in terms of excitement and the interplay between online connection and offline action. This was a very powerful mix and am very glad to see this strong emphasis on online tools continuing. See obamacto for an interesting take on what should happen next!

    Do you think that these new technologies are effective in making people more responsive?

I do think that new technology can make people feel more personally connected than ever before, and more able to respond quickly and easily to causes or issues that they are interested in. Not only this, I think that it can supplement our existing networks in new ways which are only just beginning to be realised.

    What do you think sets Your site apart from others?

It focuses on public participation and involvement from a personal perspective. I work for an organistion called http://www.involve.org.uk which is based in the UK – this enables me to look at public engagement and participation from a more analytical viewpoint during the day – then my blog covers the aspect I feel is often not covered so well – what do these ideas and projects mean for real people in their working and home lives?

    If you could choose one characteristic you have that brought you success in life, what would it be?

Critical optimism!

What was the happiest and gloomiest moment of your life?

I’m not sure on this one – life is a journey and I’m usually looking forwards not back!

    If you could pick a travel destination, anywhere in the world, with no worries about how it’s paid for – what would your top 3 choices be?

I like this question – I’d go to Tierra del Fuego to see lava pouring into the sea, then drop by Venezuela to see the Angel Falls, and then maybe to Dongtan to see the eco city… in a year or two.

   What is your favorite book and why?

I don’t have a favourite – I love reading and lots of books have strong meaning for me – one would be ….read the rest here

Enjoy the holidays! 

(Yes, I know the life is a journey line is a bit Forest Gump –  is tough not to be able to edit your words after you write them…!)

Time for a change : US Election, unprecedented turnouts

The US Presidential race is making history – and its not just about Obama believe it or not! Across the US we’re seeing unprecedented turnouts at the polling stations, which buck the historic trends across Western democracy of declining turnout at the ballot box.

CNN have reported  that the early voting figures suggest overall turnout across the US could surpass 64 percent attained in 1960′s Kennedy vs. Nixon election. In fact, experts estimate that a record 213 million voters are eligible to vote this year- voter registration drives by both parties, particularly the democrats, have played a significant role in boosting this figure. No matter which candidate they’re all voting for [though the Obama effect does seem to be boosting the turnout ;) ] this has to be good for reviving democracy.

Gallup estimates a 60% turnout – check out the graph below from OpenLeft to see what a strong trend that would actually be. (I’m hoping for something higher than this!):

But of course, unprecedented turnout equals unprecedented queues. Interesting to see how the system copes (or doesn’t) with significant numbers of people actually showing up to exercise their democratic right to vote… and that’s happening on an astonishing scale right now.

Whether in Long Island, Missouri, or Washington DC. people are turning up to be part of history – to play their own role in this grand occasion. They are standing in the winding queues, waiting there in good faith that their personal participation will count for something far bigger and more significant than any one individual’s action. That very fact is in itself a real change already being delivered by the candidates’ campaigns. Somehow, this contest has made voting suddenly seem attractive again.

Let’s see if Cameron or Brown can make me want to queue in the rain for six hours or so … hm, or maybe I’ll just do postal next year.

Obama McCain : The world is watching… and participating!

Ahmad Foroughi : Iranian Obama Campaigner

 

I love this picture of Ahmad Foroughi standing on Waterloo bridge. I met him a few weeks ago when I stopped to talk as I was curious to know what was motivating him to stand there, giving up his time on a windy Saturday afternoon.  He was wearing a cool T-shirt and carrying a sign that said ”We’re searching for Americans! Can you help? Are YOU American?”

I assumed that he himself was a US citizen – enthused by Obama’s message of change – trying to spread the zeal and get others to vote Democrat too on November 4th. I was off the mark – he is in fact Iranian by birth- and unhappy with the US’s current foreign policy around terrorism and extremism. He himself is unable to cast a vote in the US election, so gave up his Saturday afternoon to stand on Waterloo bridge trying to find any American who hadn’t registered in the hope that it’ll help Obama win tomorrow.

I asked him why he was so passionate in wanting Obama to win – he went on to discuss his family and roots in Iran and the impact of US foreign policy in previous years and what it might be the future. He then went on to tell me in a matter of fact way: ”Its time for a real change and I believe Obama can do this.”

The world is not only watching this election – they want to be part of it in whatever way they are able to, and its not just happening online, there are people like Ahmad willing to give up more than a mouseclick moment to the campaign. Inspired by politics, inspired by a politician, belief in the possibility of real change… write it off as  Obamamania if you like – but the passion and interest in participating has to be good for people’s rights and for generating the demand for real democratic process and real opportunities for people to influence power across the world.

I’d like to see this level of enthusiasm in the UK election next time around…